Multi‐Scale Fuzzy Inference System for Influent Characteristic Prediction of Wastewater Treatment          下载免费PDF全文

Zhiwei Cheng  Xuejiao Li  Yun Bai  Chuan Li 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2018,46(7)

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Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas V.Sarlis  Panayiotis A.Varotsos  Efthimios S.Skordas  Seiya Uyeda  Jacques Zlotnicki  Toshiyasu Nagao  Anatoly Rybin  Mary S.Lazaridou-Varotsos  Konstantina A.Papadopoulou 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(1):44-51

The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos(VAN) method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals(SES). Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.  相似文献   

近30 a甘肃省河东地区极端气温指数时空变化特征及趋势预测          下载免费PDF全文

黄浩  张勃  黄涛  王怀军  马尚谦  马彬  王晓丹  崔艳强 《干旱区地理》2020,43(2):319-328

基于甘肃省河东地区61个气象站点1988—2017年逐日气温数据，利用Mann-Kendall检验，Sen’s斜率估计方法分析甘肃省河东地区极端气温指数的时空变化趋势，并探讨极端气温指数与其影响因素之间的关系，最后利用NAR神经网络结合Hurst指数对甘肃省河东地区极端气温指数变化进行预测分析。结果表明：(1)从时间上看，冷极值相对指数呈下降趋势，冷极值绝对指数、暖极值以及气温日较差、作物生长期呈上升趋势。(2)从空间上看，对冷极值变化反应最为敏感的是高寒湿润区，对暖极值变化反应最为敏感的是温带半湿润区和北亚热带湿润区，除北亚热带湿润区外各区域作物生长期的变化都达到了显著水平，而气温日较差仅在温带半湿润区达到了显著水平。(3)多数极端气温指数与经纬度、海拔之间有显著相关性，但受区域自然特点影响，经度与海拔对其影响实为一类。(4)亚洲区极涡强度、北半球极涡强度以及青藏高原指数B与极端气温指数变化有密切关系，而太阳黑子等只与个别指数之间存在显著的相关性。(5)预测出的极端气温指数冷极值相对指数仍呈现下降趋势，冷极值的绝对指数、暖极值以及气温日较差、作物生长期仍然呈现增加趋势，但大多数指数与1988—2017年相比变化幅度有所降低。（6）与其他区域相比甘肃省河东地区大多数气温指数变化幅度处于中间水平，表现出其为多种不同气候区、自然区交界地带的特色。  相似文献   

A hybrid integrated deep learning model for the prediction of citywide spatio-temporal flow volumes     

Yibin Ren  Huanfa Chen  Tao Cheng  Yang Zhang  Ge Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(4):802-823

ABSTRACT

The spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet) leverages the power of deep learning (DL) for predicting the volume of citywide spatio-temporal flows. However, this model, neglects the dynamic dependency of the input flows in the temporal dimension, which affects what spatio-temporal features may be captured in the result. This study introduces a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network into the ST-ResNet to form a hybrid integrated-DL model to predict the volumes of citywide spatio-temporal flows (called HIDLST). The new model can dynamically learn the temporal dependency among flows via the feedback connection in the LSTM to improve accurate captures of spatio-temporal features in the flows. We test the HIDLST model by predicting the volumes of citywide taxi flows in Beijing, China. We tune the hyperparameters of the HIDLST model to optimize the prediction accuracy. A comparative study shows that the proposed model consistently outperforms ST-ResNet and several other typical DL-based models on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss the distribution of prediction errors and the contributions of the different spatio-temporal patterns.  相似文献   

Estimation and prediction of plastic waste annual input into the sea from China   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

BAI Mengyu  ZHU Lixin  AN Lihui  PENG Guyu  LI Daoji 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(11):26-39

Marine plastic debris has been a pervasive issue since the last century, and research on its sources and fates plays a vital role in the establishment of mitigation measures. However, data on the quantity of plastic waste that enters the sea on a certain timescale remain largely unavailable in China. Here, we established a model using material flow analysis method based on life cycle assessment to follow plastic product from primary plastic to plastic waste with statistical data and monitoring data from accurate sources. This model can be used to estimate and forecast the annual input of plastic waste into the sea from China until 2020. In 2011, 0.547 3–0.751 5 million tons of plastic waste entered the seas in China, with a growth rate of 4.55% per year until 2017. And the amount will decrease to0.257 1 to 0.353 1 million tons in 2020 under the influence of governmental management. The amount of plastic waste discharged from coastal areas calculated in this study was much larger than that from river, thus it is suggested to strengthen the governance and control of plastic waste in coastal fishery activities in China in order to reduce the amount of marine plastic waste input.  相似文献   

黄渤海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)渔业生物学参考点估计研究     

纪毓鹏  刘群  廖宝超  张清清  韩亚楠 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(10):20-26

It is important to find a reliable method to estimate maximum sustainable yield(MSY) or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management, especially when the data availability is limited which is a case in China. A recently developed method(CMSY) is a data-poor method, which requires only catch data, resilience and exploitation history at the first and final years of the catch data. CMSY was used in this study to estimate the biological reference points for Largehead hairtail(Trichiurus lepturus, Temminck and Schlegel) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, based on the fishery data from China Fishery Statistical Year Books during 1986 to 2012. Additionally,Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model(BSM) and the classical surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox) performed by software CEDA and ASPIC, were also projected in this study to compare with the performance of CMSY. The estimated MSYs from all models are about 19.7×104–27.0×104 t, while CMSY and BSM yielded more reasonable population parameter estimates(the intrinsic population growth rate and the carrying capacity). The biological reference points of B/BMSY smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Largehead hairtail fishery.  相似文献   

2011年日本东北大地震（M_W=9.0）震间与震前变形场特征及其对强震预测的启示          下载免费PDF全文

朱守彪 《地球物理学报》2020,63(2):427-439

强震震前(preseismic)动力学过程的研究对于地震预测具有十分重要的意义,但由于观测资料的限制,目前对强震前孕震区力学状态及其演化过程的认识还非常有限.2011年日本东北9.0特大地震(Tohoku-Oki)发生在GPS观测台站最为密集的地区,为研究特大地震震间(interseismic)与震前的变形状态提供了难得的机会.文中将利用日本东北大地震之前连续的GPS观测资料,分别计算震间与震前的速度场与变形场.通过对比分析发现,日本东北地区(Tohoku)震前的应变状态与震间的有很大的不同,震间的变形主要受到太平洋板块向日本海沟北西西向的俯冲挤压作用所控制,其主压应变以近东西向压缩为主,日本东北地区的运动方向与太平洋板块的运动方向大体一致.但是,临近地震前(震前)日本东北地区的运动方向发生了很大变化,震前30天的连续GPS观测结果显示,速度场的优势方向经常变换,间歇性地出现与太平洋板块运动方向相反的情况.这意味着震前孕震区的力学状态发生了很大的改变.这种变化可能与震前破裂成核或慢滑移及慢地震等过程有关,这些过程将加速或促进大地震的发生,从而为大地震的发生准备了力学条件.值得特别强调的是,这些现象都是可以通过直接观测能够发现的大地震之前的异常现象.由此可见,加密GPS站点进行连续观测,寻找震前变形异常区以及探索异常的物理机制对于地震预测预报有重要的科学意义.  相似文献   

Supply and Demand Levels for Livestock and Poultry Products in the Chinese Mainland and the Potential Demand for Feed Grains     

HUANG Shaolin  LIU Aimin  LU Chunxia  MA Beibei 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(5):475-482

The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the demand potential for feed grains represents a key scientific issue for ensuring food security in the Chinese mainland. This study is based on an analysis of several factors, such as the Chinese mainland’s output, trade volume, apparent consumption of livestock and poultry products, and two different scenarios for predicting the future demand for feed grains are assessed. The results indicate that output and consumption of livestock and poultry products, as well as the country’s trade deficit and the pressure of the supply and demand balance with respect to these products, have been increasing in recent years. The analysis predicts that the demand for feed grains in the Chinese mainland will reach 425.5 or 389.6 million tons in 2030 based on the two scenarios. This finding indicates that with the increasing demand for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland, the demand for feed grains will continue to increase, and the shortfall in feed grains and raw materials will expand further, especially dependence on external sources of protein-rich feed grains will remain high.  相似文献   

基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析          下载免费PDF全文

王猛  孙丽丽  薄怀志 《山东国土资源》2018,34(12)

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。  相似文献   

地震计线性误差精确测试     

王洪体  崔仁胜  李江  叶鹏  林湛 《地震地磁观测与研究》2018,39(2):173-177

利用同步测试标准地震数据采集器标定电流的地震计线性误差测试方法，避免了标定信号输出电流波动对地震计线性误差测试的影响，按DB/T 21—2007规定的方法进行数据处理，并判定结果是否符合DB/T 22—2007的要求。实际测试表明，该方法测试精度可以达到0.000 5%，满足测试线性偏差小于0.01%的需要，且操作简单，无额外设备要求，可行性高，可在固定地震台站、野外等条件下使用，具有较大的应用价值。  相似文献